Prop Betting Guide
A prop (proposition) bet is a wager on a specific event within a game — usually a player's individual stat line, but also game-level events like "first scoring play" or "will there be overtime?". Props are where many of the sharpest bettors find their edge.
Player Props
The most common player props on DraftKings Oregon:
- NBA: points, rebounds, assists, threes made, points+rebounds+assists (PRA), double-double
- NFL: passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, anytime touchdown, receptions
- NHL: shots on goal, goals, points, saves
- MLB: total bases, hits, strikeouts (pitcher), home run (yes/no)
- Soccer (Timbers, Thorns): shots, shots on target, cards, anytime scorer
Game Props
- First team to score
- Will there be overtime? (yes/no)
- Margin of victory (band: 1–5, 6–10, 11+)
- Coin toss outcome (NFL)
- Total touchdowns scored
- Race to X points (first team to 10 in NBA, first to 7 in NFL)
Where the Value Lives
Sportsbooks devote less analytical depth to obscure prop lines than to the main game spread / total / moneyline. The result: player props are systematically softer markets than core lines. Sharp bettors model expected stats themselves and compare to posted lines, looking for gaps.
This is especially true for:
- Lower-tier player props (the 6th man on the Blazers, not the star)
- Mid-week NBA games with thinner book attention
- Niche sports props (NWSL Thorns shots on target, lower-division soccer)
Alternate Lines
Most prop markets offer alternate lines at adjusted prices. Example: a star's points prop is set at 24.5 (–110). DraftKings might offer:
- Over 20.5: –225 (safer)
- Over 28.5: +160 (riskier, bigger payout)
- Over 34.5: +350 (long shot)
Alternate lines let you express conviction at the price/risk level that matches your read on the game.
Common Mistakes
- Betting recreational lines without modeling: Public-favorite props (e.g., "any star scoring over") have the most attention and least edge
- Ignoring opponent context: A Blazers rebounder vs. a high-rebounding opponent has different expected output than vs. a low-rebound team
- Stacking correlated props in parlays the book correctly prices
- Forgetting minutes / playing time: The single biggest factor in NBA player props is minutes, which often comes down to game-day news